Top 20: Summer 2018

by The Commish on Saturday, April 14, 2018

This is one of the hardest summer preview columns I’ve ever written.  With all the movement during the first part of the year (Avengers, Nun, Predator, Pretty) the Summer feels significantly quieter than previous years.  Sure, there are plenty of potential blockbusters but once you get outside the top 10, it’s anyone’s guess which movies will succeed.  That being said, let’s give it a shot.

1. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom – Up until Avengers 3 moved, I was undecided which movie would be my number 1 for the summer, Marvel’s move to April made the decision for me.  The trailers have been great and with a new on the horizon and hinting of dinosaurs running amok off the island, we could be in for quite the ride.  The June 22 release date and two full weeks before Ant-Man comes out should result in great box office returns.  Look for a final around $550 million.

2. Incredibles 2 – This is the first decision in rankings for the summer.  But, I’m all-in with Pixar as we finally get the Incredibles sequel.  It looks great and has a full month before any competition hits theaters.  While I’m not bullish enough to predict a $500 million final, it should pass $400 million and end around $440 million for its run.

3. Han Solo – What a difference a new trailer makes.  After what only could be described as an uninspired Super Bowl spot, the most recent Han Solo trailer has action, wise-cracks, and excitement that a Star Wars movie should have.  Pretty excited about its prospects and anticipate a $400 million finish.

4. Deadpool – The first quarter of the original Deadpool might be the most fun I’ve had a movie in 10 years.  It lost a little steam after that but is still a super fun time.  We expect a ‘sequel’ drop off from the original, but even a 25% drop equals a $275 million run.

5. Ant-Man and the Wasp – While the first Ant-Man wasn’t anything special, it was charming enough to have most fanboys excited about the sequel.  I’m undecided if the lack of Ant-Man in Avengers 3 is a good thing or a bad thing, but it will flirt with $200 million nevertheless.

6. Mission Impossible 3 – Here’s your second big draft decision, take MI6 or Hotel Transylvania 3.  I’ve decided to take the easy pick and put Cruise and his guaranteed franchise here as it should make $175 million pretty easily.

7. Hotel Transylvania 3 – Although this does remind me of Madagascar 3, which saw a surprising uptick at the box office.  Look for the ensemble animated movie to make $160 million and finish in 7th spot.

8. Ocean’s 8 – This will attract a big audience this summer.  Around $140 million big.

9. Skyscraper – Nine and ten represent another big decision for box office predictions.  That being said, I like the Rock to have a bounce back after Rampage and finish north of $125 million.

10. Mamma Mia 2 – The lack of Streep in the trailers has me quite concerned, although there should be enough interest in the sequel, despite the years that have passed.  Look for a $110 million final.

11. Christopher Robin – This has more to do with Disney than it does for the story, etc.  We’ll be lucky if this one hits $90 million.

12. The Equalizer 2 – The first one made $100 million, this one will be in a tougher situation due to competition.  Hope for $85 million with this one.

13. Teen Titans Go! – The Titans are awesome.  This one has potential to crack the top 10, it also has a chance to make $50 million.  Let’s split the difference and say $80 million.

14. The PurgeThe Purge movies are excellent.  This one looks no different.  Expect it to be as subtle as a hammer to the face with its political commentary.  While our initial prediction is $75 million, this is another one with a serious shot at sleeper contention.

15. The Spy Who Dumped Me – I’m undecided about this or The Hustle for the 15th spot.  There will be a comedy that breaks out this summer, I don’t think we’ll suffer from a Rough Night hangover.  Look for $70 million.

16. The Hustle – in what can only be seen as a reboot of Dirty Rotten Scoundrels, Anne Hathaway and Rebel Wilson are the perfect pair to replace Mike Caine and Steve Martin.  Expect a $68 million final.

17. Life of the Party – Basically Back to School with Melissa McCarthy, looks good to me - $65 million.

18. Tag – I love the trailer and the concept.  Look for $60 million.

19. Mile 22 – I wish this would’ve come out in September, because the Mission Impossible juggernaut will engulf it, $55 million.

20. The Meg – Shark movies have been averaging $50 million over the last couple of summers, look for the same.